As an Amazon seller, in order to make the category we intend to develop and operate go further and wider in the future, we used multiple ways to obtain historical data to predict the future development trend of this category, such as:
A. Utilize Keepa to analyze the trends and price changes of several representative products in the category.
B. Leverage Google Trends to analyze the search popularity of several core keywords in the category.
C. Capitalize on different keyword tools to analyze the search popularity of several core keywords in the category on Amazon.
D. View the historical transaction records and growth of online wholesale platforms.
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But each of the above methods may lead to different judgment results due to some factors that we neglect, such as:
A. Utilize Keepa to analyze the trends and price changes of several representative products in the category.
When seeing representative products’ ranking and sales of the category are constantly rising, we may think this is an expansion of overall market demand. However, according to objectively recorded data, there is another possibility in many markets. Although the sales of representative products is increasing, the overall sales of this category is not increasing, even decreasing, because the entire market share (sales) is gradually accumulating to a few products;
When seeing representative products’ rankings and sales of another category are constantly falling, we may believe that the overall market demand is shrinking. But in fact, the demand for this category is constantly rising, because we see that the number of brands in the best-selling products of this category is increasing, and the entire market share is divided by more newcomers.
B. Leverage Google Trends to analyze the search popularity of several core keywords in the category.
Searching for prepared keywords, we find that the search volume of each keyword is soaring year by year. In this case, we also need to consider:
1. Faced with this kind of products, although its keywords are frequently searched on Google, will consumers buy on Amazon or eBay, wish? Do you only sell on Amazon, or multiple platforms?
2. How long will it take for such products to develop spending habits on Amazon?
C. Capitalize on different keyword tools to analyze the search popularity of several core keywords in the category on Amazon.
When only using the keyword search popularity on Amazon to evaluate the market trend, we first have to judge:
"High traffic will bring large sales". Is that right? Or does this just mean that there is a greater chance?
For example, using tools to view the core keywords for “women jewelry” category on Amazon, the search popularity is far more than that of “men personal care” category. However, after comparing the final converted sales, we find that the sales gap is not big, because the average conversion rate of men personal care products on Amazon would be higher.
D. View the historical transaction records and growth of online wholesale platforms.
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As a seller who only sell on Amazon, how to accurately judge the development trend of a category on Amazon? I believe that different sellers have different views. Our view is that all traffic will eventually reflect in sales volume, so we take the result as the guide to summarize the rules, predict the trend, and use the most concentrated sales volume of each category as well as the daily changes of each core dimension as the main basis for predicting the future trend of this category.
Core data analysis
Market capacity
Monthly sales of the TOP100 Listing. Via the trend:
1.Judging the market's upward/downward trend to evaluate the market's sustainable operation opportunities.
2. Judging the market's peak season to provide reference for stock.
3. Predicting the future trend of the market to find some potential markets, lay out products in advance, and seize the market. If there is no trend, it may be that the market is in the off-season. In fact, the market may enter the peak sales season after 2-3 months.
* Different categories, different overall sales trend.
Brands
Brands of the TOP100 Listing. Via the trend:
1.If the new product proportion is constantly rising, it means that new brands are continuously entering the market, and there is a certain opportunity for new brands entering the market.
2.If the new product proportion is continuously falling, it indicates that the number of brands in this market is decreasing, and some of them tend to monopolize the market, so there is some risk for new brands to enter the market.
3. If the new product proportion is low and there is no significant brand fluctuation in the overall market, it may be that the current brand has owned its market share, or there have been no new good brands entering the market to grab market share. It is necessary to combine with other dimensions to comprehensively analyze based on its own operation and promotion capabilities.
Sellers：
Sellers of the TOP100 Listing. Via the trend:
1.If the new product proportion is constantly rising, it means that new sellers are continuously entering the market, and there is a certain opportunity for new sellers to enter the market.
2.If the new product proportion is continuously falling, it indicates that the number of sellers in this market is decreasing, and some of them tend to monopolize the market, so there is some risk for new sellers to enter the market.
3. If the new product proportion is low and there is no great seller fluctuation in the overall market, it may be that the current seller has owned its market share, or there have been no new good sellers entering the market to grab market share. It is necessary to combine with other dimensions to comprehensively analyze based on its own operation and promotion capabilities.
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